For those of you that appreciate temperatures above 110 degrees, let me be the deliverer of somber news. We will not likely reach or exceed 110 degrees for at least another 7 days. In fact, we may see temperatures drop back into the 90s a few of those days. Looks like continued weak troughs will move through the West, with periods of high winds, lowered temperatures (albeit still HOT!), and even occasional clouds at times. The long range pattern suggests the next 2 weeks will be near or below normal... so we many not see the scorching 110+ temps for a spell.
SHORT TERM - TONIGHT & THURSDAY
High pressure moving across Southern California the next 2 days will allow temperatures to remain toasty Thursday. Highs 100-106, Lows 68-78. Gusty winds are possible in the afternoon and evening hours, mostly north of Alejo in Palm Springs, and southeast down the I-10 corridor into Indio and Thermal. Strongest gusts over 35 mph should be confined to northern areas closer to I-10.
The high pressure system will move to our east, as a weak trough moves in from the west. This setup will allow our first "close call" with a humid, southeast monsoon flow from deep Mexico. Arizona will likely see scattered thunderstorms, but we will be on the extreme western edge of this moisture.
We may see a southeast "gulf surge" sometime between Thursday night and Friday night. Breezy southeast winds may bring a period of elevated humidity, dewpoints may rise from the comfortable 30s and 40s up to a more humid 50s, 60s or possibly up near 70, and scattered afternoon cloudiness may develop Friday, with a very slight chance of a thunderstorm over the nearby mountains (less than 5% chance). Higher chances will be just to our east near the Colorado River Valley and east.
Temperatures will cool somewhat, to the upper 90's to mid 100's. However, if the humidity rises a bit as is possible (about a 30-50% chance), it will feel a bit uncomfortable. If any larger thunderstorms do develop to our southeast in Western Arizona, which is not likely but is remotely possible, we could see a chance of increased haze or even a possible dust storm late Friday afternoon. A favorable wind direction could transport any weather from our southeast up into our area. The atmospheric profile indicates any thunderstorms that form over Arizona are more likely to produce lightning and strong winds, than they are to produce widespread heavy rain out over Arizona. These are known as "dry thunderstorms."
SATURDAY - SUNDAY
The weak low pressure system will move through over the weekend, shunting the brief southeast monsoon flow off to our east, and returning a stable airmass to our area, as well as westerly air flow.
This will allow the marine layer to crank up along the coast, which allows the onshore flow from the coast to howl through the passes and canyons and east into the nearby deserts once again.
High temps will drop to the 97-102 range, with lows in the mid 60's to mid 70s.
There will likely be strong winds once again along the areas closest to the I-10 corridor.. possibly gusting over 45 mph at times, especially afternoon and evenings. Some of these winds will blow into town as well.
Slight warming early week will likely cool again late week, with some models predicting a weak storm system late in the week. Stay tuned!