The 4th of July is now behind us, and this is the time of year we begin to see intermittent bouts of clouds, humidity and thunderstorm activity when our weather pattern becomes more susceptible to the wind and weather patterns originating to our southeast.
As is typical, Palm Springs often lies close to the boundary of drier and more stable air to our west, originating from the cool waters of the Pacific. However, increasingly strong southeast winds carrying more humid and unstable air from the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Southern Mexico occasionally start to make inroads on our weather. This seasonal shift of wind from the west, to the southeast, is often referred to as the “Summer Monsoon” here in the U.S. Southwest.
Currently, most moisture has remained east of Arizona thus far this summer. Here is a look at todays satellite that exemplifies the pattern of the past month quite well.
Southwest upper flow circulating around a low pressure system west of Washington has kept temperatures close to normal most of the past few weeks. The high pressure system has remained well east over the Central U.S. and therefore has kept us free of intense heat most of the summer thus far.
HEAT TO BUILD NEXT WEEK - MOISTURE MAY FOLLOW?
The high pressure system is expected to strengthen and move somewhere close to Northern New Mexico or Northeast Arizona toward the middle of next week. If this comes to fruition as is expected, this will cause temperatures to climb over most of the Western United States. Depending on where exactly the high pressure decides to center will determine if we have a moderate heat wave or a major one. Current expectations that temperatures will climb higher but not reach extreme levels. I advise people not to get stuck on the exact temperature predictions this early out as they are still relatively low confidence with the details.
High temps the next few days will be relatively comfortable, mostly in the upper 90s - 105 during the day and 68-75 at night.
High temps will likely surpass 110 by next Wednesday or Thursday (possibly even exceeding 115), with low temperatures becoming less comfortable, likely only dropping to 80-85 by Thursday and Friday morning of next week. We may soon see an end to these comfortable mornings lately!
Joshua Tree/Yucca Valley:
Expect temps to be rather comfortable for this time of year, in the high 80s to high 90s the next few days… rising into the mid 100’s by next Thursday or Friday, possibly higher.
MONSOON MOISTURE MAY MAKE AN APPEARANCE
Extended weather models are indicating the high pressure system will likely settle over northern New Mexico and Arizona which is a favorable setup for moisture to finally begin escaping northern Mexico and tracking west into Arizona and eventually, California.
By next Friday or Saturday, it is likely that the boundary for more humidity, indicated by the red line above, may eventually move west of our area, allowing at least a chance of afternoon thunderstorms to develop.
It is too early to know for certainty, but the pattern shift could suggest we may be vulnerable to southeast wind events, “Gulf surges” of humid and hazy air moving into our area from the southeast, and an increase in overall humidity. Thunderstorms and outflows with dust storms become a possibility under this type of pattern as well.
Therefore, we all need to get out an enjoy the dry and relatively “comfortable” summer temperatures we will enjoy through Tuesday, as it may be replaced by muggy weather by the end of next week!
Hope everyone had a great 4th!!!